Data Communications Transceiver Markets: 2009-2013

Published: August 12, 2009

This report provides forecasts of the data communications transceiver market through 2013. Inside it the reader will find an assessment of the latest technological trends including the impact of the bandwidth demand from the latest generation of processors which seem finally to have caught up with what 10 GigE networking can offer. In this new environment in which 10 GigE is becoming mainstreamed, what is the revenue potential from 10 GigE-over-copper? And what does the rise of 10 GigE mean for the future of GigE?

This report answers this question and also examines how the copper vs. single-mode vs. multimode story will play out in the data center and short-haul communications market over the next five years. We also provide market forecasts for active optical cabling and parallel optics technology and discuss how these interesting new technologies may break out of the market limitations of the large data center and high-performance computing (HPC).

This new report from CIR covers the transceiver market for the key data communications networking technologies including Ethernet, Fibre Channel, InfiniBand, and CWDM. It examines where the opportunities in data communications transceivers will be found in the coming years and how the various overlapping MSAs and standards will play themselves out in the market. The report also discusses how the leading firms in the datacom transceiver space are planning their product and marketing strategies for the future. Detailed volume and value forecasts are provided for each protocol covered broken out by data rates, MSA, technology platform, reach, etc.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

E.1 Current Business Conditions in the Datacom Transceiver Market
E.2 Key Opportunities in the Modules Market
E.2.1 Opportunities Below 10 Gbps
E.2.2 10-Gbps Growth
E.2.3 Opportunities, Standards and MSAs
E.3 Summary of Forecasts
E.4 Long-Term Direction for the Datacom Transceiver Market

Chapter One: Introduction

1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 The Irresistible Rise of 10 Gbps
1.1.2 New Directions in Data Networking: Cloud Computing and Virtualization
1.1.3 Processor Speeds Catch Up with Networking Speeds
1.1.4 Copper vs. MMF vs. SMF
1.2 Objective and Scope of Report
1.3 Methodology of Report
1.4 Plan of Report

Chapter Two: Enabling Technologies, Standards and MSAs

2.1 Enabling Technologies
2.1.1 Data Center Cabling
2.1.2 Availability of Integrated 10G SERDES
2.1.3 Availability of 10-Gigabit Small Form Factor Pluggable Optical Modules (SFP+ and QSFP+)
2.1.4 Optical Integration and Silicon Photonics
2.1.5 CWDM Technology
2.1.6 The Rise of Parallelism
2.1.7 Active Optical Cabling
2.1.8 Passive and Active Copper Cabling
2.1.9 10GBASE-T Solutions
2.1.10 Trends in Data Center Cabling: Copper vs. MMF vs. SMF
2.2 Standards Evolution
2.2.1 10 GigE
2.2.2 Fibre Channel: To 8 Gbps, to Ethernet and Beyond
2.2.3 Are New Standards Needed?
2.3 MSA Evolution
2.3.1 300-pin, XENPAK, XPAK, X2, XFP, SFP+ and Future Modules
2.3.2 XFP Markets and Opportunities
2.3.3 SFP+ Markets and Opportunities
2.3.4 HD4x Modules
2.3.5 MSAs for Parallel Optics

Chapter Three: Markets, Applications and Forecasts

3.1 Introduction and Approach to Forecast
3.1.1 Changes from Last Year's Forecast
3.2 Information Technology and Networking Trends that Impact Our Forecasts
3.2.1 The Impact of Cloud Computing
3.2.2 The Impact of Video
3.2.3 The Impact of Mobile Computing
3.3 Ethernet Markets
3.3.1 Residential Ethernet Forecasts
3.3.2 Business Ethernet Forecasts
3.3.3 Forecast of Ethernet by Media
3.3.4 Servers, Data Centers and the First Mass Markets for 10 GigE
3.3.5 Forecast of 10 GigE by IEEE Standard
3.3.6 Forecast of 10 GigE by MSA
3.3.7 The Future of GigE
3.3.8 A Final Summary Forecast of Ethernet
3.4 Fibre Channel, InfiniBand, and Parallel Optics
3.4.1 Fibre Channel Market Analysis
3.4.2 Fibre Channel Market Forecasts
3.4.3 InfiniBand and Parallel Optics Analysis
3.4.4 Parallel Optics Market Forecasts
3.5 Summary of Markets
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Author

List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1: Datacom Transceiver Market Forecasts ($ Millions)
Exhibit 1-1: Server Performance vs. Ethernet Speeds
Exhibit 2-1: Data Center Wiring Center
Exhibit 2-2: Insertion loss of 10Gbps SFP+ connector
Exhibit 2-3: SNAP12 Modules from Emcore
Exhibit 2-4: Fiber-on-Board Solution from Luxtera integrating a 12x10Gbps TX and 12x10Gbps RX
Exhibit 2-5: Distances for Passive Copper, Active Copper and Active Optical Cables
Exhibit 2-6: Power Budget for 48-Port 10GBASE-T Switch
Exhibit 2-7: Data Center Cable Lengths
Exhibit 2-8: Data Center Rack to Rack Cable Requirements
Exhibit 2-10: IEEE 10G Standards and their Key Features
Exhibit 2-11: Fibre Channel Roadmap
Exhibit 2-12: XENPAK module
Exhibit 2-13: XPAK module
Exhibit 2-14: X2 module
Exhibit 2-15: XFP module
Exhibit 2-16: SFP+ Module
Exhibit 2-17: SFP+ Active Cable
Exhibit 2-18: HD4x Module
Exhibit 2-19: 10-Gigabit Module Form Factors
Exhibit 2-20: QSFP Module
Exhibit 2-21: CXP module
Exhibit 3-1: PC Shipments, 2008 to 2013
Exhibit 3-2: Residential Ethernet Shipments by Type of Equipment
Exhibit 3-3: Residential Ethernet Shipments by Data Rate
Exhibit 3-4: Business Ethernet Shipments by Type of Equipment
Exhibit 3-5: Business Ethernet Shipments by Data Rate
Exhibit 3-6: Ethernet Shipments by Media (Millions)
Exhibit 3-7: 10-GigE Shipments by IEEE Standard (Millions)
Exhibit 3-8: 10-GigE Shipments by MSA and IEEE Standards
Exhibit 3-9: 10-GigE Shipments by MSA ($ Million)
Exhibit 3-10: Summary of 10 GigE Shipments by MSA ($ Million)
Exhibit 3-11: 10-GigE Shipments by IEEE Specs ($ Million)
Exhibit 3-12: Ethernet Market Value: Analysis
Exhibit 3-13: Ethernet Market Value: By Data Rate ($ Millions)
Exhibit 3-14: Ethernet Market Value: By Media ($ Millions)
Exhibit 3-15: Fiber Channel Shipments (Millions)
Exhibit 3-16: Fiber Channel Pricing ($)
Exhibit 3-17: Fiber Channel Market ($ Millions)
Exhibit 3-18: 8/10 Fiber Channel Shipments by MSA (Millions)
Exhibit 3-19: Parallel Optics Forecasts
Exhibit 3-20: Datacom Transceiver Market Forecasts ($ Millions)