Telecommunications Transceiver/Transponder Markets: 2009-2013
Published: October 1, 2009
This report provides our latest forecasts of transceivers and transponders for the public networking environment for the years 2009 to 2014. The report focuses especially on the rise of the ITU-defined Optical Transport Network (OTN) and what that will mean for the both the WDM and SONET transceiver/transponder market. In particular, we discuss how the need for ROADMs to be more actively deployed will create new markets for active optical modules and also what the future demand for tunable transponders will be.
An important part of this report will also be in examining how the major carriers will be implementing their next-generation 100 Gbps backbones, now that the appropriate standards are beginning to be firmed up. With this in mind, this report takes and in-depth look at how this transition will create opportunities for transceiver/transponder makers. At the other end of the scale we take a close look at what lies in the future of SONET/SDH. Are there still markets left for it to serve and does OC-768, in fact, have any future?
CIR has been carrying out analysis of transceiver/transponder markets for over a decade now and as with all its previous reports in this series, CIR will in this report, also examine future reach requirements for transceivers and transponders and what parts of the network will be biggest revenue earners; long-haul, metro or access.
Also in this report, we review key enabling technologies for public network transmission modules and how the many overlapping MSAs will play themselves out in the market. The report also discusses how the leading firms in the telecom transceiverDtransponder space are planning their product and marketing strategies for the future with so many uncertainties both economic and technological impacting the market .
CIRs new telecom transceiver/transponder report analyzes and quantifies all of the key market opportunities in this business. Detailed volume and value forecasts are provided for each protocol covered broken out by data rates, MSA, technology platform, reach, etc.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
E.1 Current Business Conditions in the Telecom Transceiver/Transponder Market
E.2 Key Opportunities in the Telecom Modules Market
E.2.1 Backwards Compatibility Requirements for Modules
E.2.2 The Rise of the OTN and the Implications for the WDM Market
E.2.3 The Future of OC-768/OTU-3: Is There One?
E.2.4 Is there Still a Sweet Spot for OC-192?
E.2.5 Opportunities, Standards and MSAs
E.3 Firms to Watch
E.3.1 CyOptics
E.3.2 Emcore
E.3.3 Finisar
E.3.4 JDSU
E.3.5 Mintera
E.3.6 Oclaro
E.3.7 Oplink
E.3.8 Opnext
E.4 Summary of Forecasts
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to Report
1.1.1 Rise of the OTN, the Fall of SONET, Potential of IPoDWDM
1.1.2 Why Can't We Transport Ethernet Directly?
1.1.3 Where to with OC-768, OTU-3 and 40G Ethernet
1.1.4 Video, Cloud Computing and What It Means to the Module Makers
1.1.5 The Module Makers' Response
1.2 Objectives and Scope of Report
1.3 Methodology of Report
1.4 Plan of Report
Chapter Two: Transceiver/Transponder Technology, Standards, and MSAs
2.1 Transceivers and Transponders
2.1.1 TOSAs and ROSAs
2.2 Enabling Technologies
2.2.1 Where Can Optical Integration Make a Difference: Now and the Future
2.2.2 Influential Developments in Tunable Laser Technology
2.2.3 Other Laser-Related Developments
2.2.4 Impact of New Modulation Technology
2.2.5 Impact of New Dispersion Compensation Technology
2.3 Standards Evolution
2.3.1 The ITU and OTN
2.3.2 IEEE, Ethernet and the 100 Gbps for Service Providers
2.4 MSA Evolution
2.4.1 300-pin, XENPAK, XPAK and X2: Where to From Here?
2.4.2 The Role of XFP and SFP+ in the Public Network
2.4.3 Public Network MSAs and Standards for the Future: 40 and 100 Gbps
Chapter Three: Transceivers, Transponders and Markets
3.1 Applications Drivers for Public Network Transceiver/Transponder Markets
3.1.1 Video
3.2 TOSA/ROSA Markets
3.3 Long-haul and Ultra-long Haul Networks
3.3.1 Network Evolution and Coming Technology Changes
3.3.2 Transponder/Transceiver Requirements
3.4 Metro Networks
3.4.1 Network Evolution: Metro DWDM and/or Metro SONET
3.4.2 Transponder/Transceiver Requirements
3.5 Access Networks and the Impact of PONs
3.5.1 PON Deployment
3.5.2 Access WDM
3.6 SONET/SDH Forecasts
3.7 WDM Forecasts
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Worldwide Transmission Modules Markets: 2009-2014 ($ Millions)
Exhibit 1-1: OTN has the Advantages of SONET Link Management and Ethernet Simplicity
Exhibit 1-2: Transcoding of 40G Ethernet for OTU-3 Transport
Exhibit 1-3: Typical Household Video Bandwidth Requirements
Exhibit 1-4: Sharing Processes in a Cloud Computing Solution
Exhibit 2-1: Opportunities for Optical Integration in High-Speed Networks
Exhibit 2-2: New Laser Integrated Products for Carrier Solutions
Exhibit 2-3: Advanced Modulation 100-Gbps Optical Module Being Defined by the OIF
Exhibit 2-4: DP QPSK Receiver Module Defined by the OIF
Exhibit 2-5: Infinera PIC Capabilities
Exhibit 2-6: Infinera Large Scale PIC
Exhibit 2-7: Initial Luxtera Integrated Photonics Offering
Exhibit 2-8: Production Version of Luxtera Integrated Photonics Offering (QSFP+ MSA)
Exhibit 2-9: Modulator Technologies
Exhibit 2-10: Duo-Binary, DSPK and DQPSK Modulation Format Characteristics
Exhibit 2-11: Optical Transport Network (OTN) Layers
Exhibit 2-12: OTN Frame Structure
Exhibit 2-13: OTN Layer Termination Points
Exhibit 2-14: OTN Aggregation Capabilities
Exhibit 2-15: Ethernet LAN and Transport Network Connections
Figure 2-16: 10-Gig Transceiver/Transponder Form Factors
Exhibit 2-17: Summary of Proposed 40GBase-LR4 Specifications
Exhibit 2-18: Summary of 100GBase-LR4 proposed specifications
Exhibit 2-19: Summary of 100GBase-ER4 Proposed Specifications
Exhibit 2-20: CFP Features
Exhibit 3-1: Hardware Used for Cloud Computing
Exhibit 3-2: Video Requirements of a Typical Household
Exhibit 3-3: The SONET/SDH Module Market by Data Rate
Exhibit 3-4: OC-192 Module Markets by Reach
Exhibit 3-5: OC-192 Module Markets by MSA
Exhibit 3-6: OC-768 Module Markets by Reach
Exhibit 3-7: The WDM Module Market by Network Segment
Exhibit 3-8: WDM Module Markets by Reach
Exhibit 3-9: WDM Module Markets by MSA
Exhibit 3-10: WDM and SONET Basic Port Projections (000s)
Exhibit 3-11: WDM and SONET Combined Market ($ Millions)
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