400 G, OTN and Next-Generation Transport:  A Market and Technology Forecast


Carriers worldwide are outgrowing 100 G transport networks and taking first steps towards 400 G backbones.  CIR believes these ultra-fast networks will create major new revenue opportunities for optical components firms, silicon chipmakers and equipment companies alike. This new business will come from volume deployments of 400G networks themselves.  It will also emerge from radical new directions in modulation, amplification, and multiplexing technology that will create openings for companies with novel WDM/OTN platforms of all kinds.
Many questions remain.  How many carriers will jump to 400 G immediately?  Which ones will be satisfied with 200 G cores for a few years, before shifting to 400 G transport networks?  Which enabling technologies are available and will be deployed by equipment firms to make 400 G possible?  And how will these equipment suppliers design their next-generation routers and switches to make them 400 G ready?
The answers to these questions will shape where and how the money will be made in the next few years in optical transport business.  In this new CIR report we provide these answers, drawing on the evidence that is emerging from the slew of recent 400 G trials, as well as the plans by the leading systems firms.
This report provides a complete opportunity analysis and roadmap for 400 G transport, including an assessment of innovations such as superchannels and the latest modulation schemes, and the role of coherent and Raman technology, as well as the emerging standards framework for 400 G from the ITU and OIF.  Based on this analysis, we identify the key capabilities that will be needed in next generation core network platforms and how they are most likely to be provided.  The report also includes a granular eight-year forecast of the 400 G core market with breakouts by type of technology and network segment.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
E.1 Three Factors Driving 400G Backbones:  Bandwidth Hunger, Applications and the 100G Paradigm
E.1.1 Mobile Broadband:  A New Paradigm for Network Traffic
E.2 Opportunities Created in the Transport Layer:  The Need for Intelligence at Every Level
E.2.1 Role of Software Defined Networks:  A Key Enabling Technology?
E.2.2 Danger of Market Overshoot               
E.3 Component Level Opportunities
E.3.1 The Growing Power of DSP and Waveform Engineering
E.3.2 Proprietary Network Processors in a 400G Environment
E.3.3 Integration and Opportunities for Optical Components Firms at 400G
E.4 The Optical Networking Equipment Perspective on 400G
E.4.1 Four Factors That Will Shape the 400G Optical Platform Market
E.4.2 Five Firms that will Shape the 400G Transport Space
E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of 400G Transport Markets

Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report: Outstanding Questions About 400G Transport Deployment
1.1.1 Trials and Addressable Markets for 400G Transport Aren't the Same Thing
1.1.2 Service and Standards Environments Add More Uncertainties for 400G Transport
1.1.3 Equipment and Components Firms:  Together Again at 400G?
1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Analysis of Enabling Technologies and Standards for 400G Transport
2.1 Multiplexing, Switching and Routing Options in the 400G Transport Environment
2.1.1 OTN Boxes, Routers and Optical Packet Switching in 400G Network
2.1.2 Differing Visions of 400G:  Sometimes 400G is 200G and Sometimes It is 500G
2.1.3 WDM, Superchannels and Bandwidth Allocation
2.1.4 A Role for Space Division at 400 Gbps?
2.2 New Directions for Modulation in the 400G Environment
2.2.2 DP-16 QAM and Beyond
2.3 Raman Technology in 400G Backbones
2.4 400 Gbps Coherent Technology: the Once and Future
2.5 Standards
2.5.1 ITU-T, OTN at 400 Gbps
2.5.2 Optical Internetworking Forum (OIF)
2.5.3 IETF
2.5.4 Relevance of the Emerging 400 Gigabit Ethernet Standard for Carriers

Chapter Three: Equipment Vendor Strategies for 400G
3.1 Alcatel-Lucent (France/United States)
3.1.1 Photonic Service Switch (PSS)
3.1.2 Photonic Service Engine (PSE)
3.1.3 FP3 400G Chip
3.1.4 Wavelength Tracker
3.1.5 Nextgen (Australia)
3.1.6 Orange-France Telecom/RENATER (France)
3.1.7 SaskTel (Canada)
3.1.8 Shaw Communications (Canada)
3.1.9 Telefónica España (Spain)
3.1.10 Zain (Saudi Arabia)
3.2 Ciena (United States)
3.2.1 WaveLogic 3
3.2.2 Ciena 6500
3.2.3 BT (United Kingdom)
3.2.4 Sprint (United States)
3.2.5 Comcast (United States)
3.2.6 Verizon (United States)
3.3 Cisco (United States)
3.3.1 NCS Platform
3.3.2 nPower X1 Network Processor
3.4 Coriant (Germany)
3.4.1 FlexiGrid ROADM nodes
3.4.2 hiT 7100 and 7300
3.4.3 Netia (Poland)
3.4.4 Telekom Austria – A1 (Austria)
3.5 Cyan (United States)
3.5.1 GlobalConnect (Denmark)
3.6 Ericsson (Sweden)
3.6.1 MHL 3000 Platform
3.6.2 SPO 1410 Platform
3.6.3 Smart Service Routers 8000
3.6.4 Telefónica España (Spain)
3.7 Fujitsu and NEC (Japan)
3.7.1 NTT (Japan)
3.7.2 Verizon (United States)
3.8 Huawei (China)
3.8.1 NE5000E Router
3.8.2 WDM Transport Solutions
3.8.3 EXATEL (Poland)
3.8.4 Jazztel (Spain)
3.8.5 KPN International (Netherlands)
3.8.6 Mobily (Saudi Arabia)
3.8.7 True (Thailand)
3.8.8 Telefonica Chile (Chile)
3.8.9 400G Photonics Integration Program
3.9 Infinera (United States)
3.9.1 DTN-X
3.9.2 DANTE (Europe)
3.9.3 TeliaSonera (Sweden/Finland)
3.9.4 Zayo (International)
3.10 Juniper (United States)
3.11 TE SubCom (United States)
3.12 Xtera (United States)
3.13 ZTE (China)
3.13.1 Recent 400G Trial
3.13.1 Deutsche Telekom (Germany)

Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts
4.1 Forecasting Methodology
4.1.1 Assumptions About Network Requirements and Sources of Information
4.1.2 Getting to Market in a Hurry:  400G Backbones without Standards
4.1.3 Assumptions about Technology Evolution
4.2 Eight-Year Forecast of 400G Transport Equipment:  Core Analysis
4.3 Eight-Year Forecast of 400G Equipment:  Breakout by Type of Network
4.4 Eight-Year Forecast of Optical Components for 400G Deployment
4.5 Possible 400 Gbps Service Offerings

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report

About the Author


List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1:  Eight-Year Forecast of 400G Transport Equipment:  Core Analysis
Exhibit 2-1:  Goals of the 400 Gbps Ethernet Study Group
Exhibit 4-1:  Eight-Year Forecast of 400G Transport Equipment:  Core Analysis
Exhibit 4-2 Eight-Year Forecast of 400G Equipment:  Breakout by Type of Network
Exhibit 4-3:  Eight-Year Forecast of Optical Components for 400G Deployment ($ Millions)










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