CIR Insights

In a recent episode of Lightwave’s Broadband Pulse, CIR President Lawrence Gasman sat down to share his perspective on some of the most significant developments shaping the optical networking industry today. Drawing on nearly five decades of experience in technology forecasting and market analysis, Gasman offered his assessment of OFC 2026, the commercial potential of

In a recent episode of Entangled Health, CIR President Lawrence Gasman moves beyond the boundaries of technology forecasting. Drawing on decades of experience modeling commercial outcomes across networking, photonics, AI, and quantum, Gasman opens with a grounded look at the near-term trajectory of quantum AI and robotics before the discussion takes a more philosophical turn.

Glad to be quoted by Brian Pereira in CIO on Nvidia’s $5B stake in Intel. This deal marks more than just a financial lifeline — it signals how x86 will continue to shape the future of AI data centers. The ripple effects across Intel, TSMC, AMD, and beyond are only beginning. You can read his

Quantum Data Centers Await Use Cases and Tech MaturityHere's a link to Lawrence Gasman's latest interview with CIO Magazine and a few key takeaways:(1) Quantum computers are, uniquely suited to solving complex problems, but lack compelling use cases to drive widespread adoption(2) Prospects include designing nanocoatings for the automotive & aerospace industries with quantum-enabled factories

On July 8, 2025, Lawrence Gasman joined an expert panel hosted by LIGHTWAVE for a compelling webinar titled “The Road to 800G / 1.5T in the Data Center.” The session brought together some of the leading voices in data infrastructure and optics to explore the next phase of hyperscale evolution — from 800G to 1.6

First of again, I want to thank all my friends and colleagues for their good wishes and words on my triple bypass the other week. If it was a shock to them, it was even more of a shock to my poor and wonderful wife, Cynthia, who found me collapsed in our bathroom, pounding the

Design by CIR “These are slides we used for a presentation we gave recently to a delegation of corporate executives from Japan.  The slides cover CIR’s positions on the intersection of AI, quantum and optical networks” Notice: JavaScript is required for this content.

On February 18, 2025, the President of CIR, Lawrence Gasman, made a presentation at a Webinar on the topic of “Optical Transceivers in the Age of AI: Impacts, Challenges, and Opportunities,” organized by Lightwave. His presentation can be found at https://www.lightwaveonline.com/resources/webinar/55260572/optical-transceivers-in-the-age-of-ai-impacts-challenges-and-opportunities Lawrence’s talk covered how the Data Center is changing to cover the rise of

January 14, 2025 Richmond, VA: Industry analyst firm, CIR, has issued a new report covering business opportunities from the new breed of AI data centers over the coming decade.  The report, “Networks and Power Requirements for AI Data Centers: A Ten Year Market Forecast and Technology Assessment” says that: By 2030 AI data centers built

Our new report “Networks and Power Requirements for AI Data Centers”  provides CIR’s assessment and ten-year forecast of the burgeoning market for networks and related connectivity products for AI data centers.  We believe that this report provides the first consistent and comprehensive projections of opportunities in this AI Data Center sector.  In our forecasts, we

It was both great fun and a great honor to see the program unfold that I designed for the two-day IQT “Quantum + AI” (Q + AI) event in New York last month.  Was I a modest person, modesty would have prevented me from saying how great the speakers at the conference were. But I’m

Five Things I Learned at the “Ethernet in the Age of AI” Conference This is first issue of my CIR newsletter “From My Desk” in which I plan to cover new developments in optical networking, AI and quantum technology with an eye to economics and use cases. Last month I attended the “Ethernet in the

Lawrence Gasman chairing the Executive Roundtable at the Quantum + AI event last month

What is AI really? Commercial AI technology for the office and industry. Enterprise AI AI and the electric power industry A future history of AI. Sentience? Questions from the audience

https://www.insidequantumtechnology.com/news/podcast/ Tune in to the latest episode of the Quantum Tech Pod, where host Jake Duhaime is joined by Lawrence Gasman, President of IQT Research, for a deep dive into the world of Quantum and AI. With the highly anticipated Quantum + AI event coming up in New York City on October 29-30, Lawrence shares

Richmond, Virginia: A recent interview with Lawrence Gasman in Time Magazine. https://time.com/6977355/generative-ai-quantum-computing-us-china-technology/ About CIR CIR works with established and start-up companies; industry giants and niche players; market leaders and new entrants. Companies have relied on CIR reports and consulting services for more than 30 years because the forecasts are credible, the coverage is balanced and

Richmond, Virginia: My new IQT podcast with Chris Bishop of Inside Quantum Technology. https://www.insidequantumtechnology.com/news-archive/quantum-tech-pod-episode-71-lawrence-gasman-inside-quantum-technology-iqt/   About CIR CIR works with established and start-up companies; industry giants and niche players; market leaders and new entrants. Companies have relied on CIR reports and consulting services for more than 30 years because the forecasts are credible, the coverage

Richmond, Virginia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BF7PygmR7S4 “Almost” live interview from the heart of the AWE 2013 Exhibit Hall – the world’s largest augmented reality event – presented by AR Dirt and Mass Ideation. Learn more at http://AugmentedWorldExpo.com About CIR CIR works with established and start-up companies; industry giants and niche players; market leaders and new entrants. Companies have

Increasing commercial interest in Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) is being fed by (1) the selection of four PQC standards by NIST in 2022, together with (2) sped-up scenarios for quantum computers able to crack conventional encryption schemes. The PQC market is potentially huge.  Consider that, with an assist from a quantum computer, Shor’s algorithm can be

There is always a next entrant in the next-gen transceiver market.  Typically, these reflect only an order of magnitude leap in data rate, with (1) much of the new transceiver technology derived from the previous generation of transceivers and (2) much of the motivation to build the transceivers in the first place to support rapid

Near-Packaged Optics (NPO) is concept that has emerged recently embodying many of the advantages of Co-packaged optics (CPO) but simpler to implement. We think that given that CPO technology is still at its earliest stages, we need a ramp up technology to get us to CPO. NPO uses a high-performance PCB substrate—an interposer—that sits on

Pluggable optical modules in the way we have known them are on their way out. Co-packaged Optics is garnering a great deal of attention and while it will largely displace/replace existing concept of pluggables, this won’t happen overnight. This article provides some perspective on the transition away from pluggable optics. Currently the pluggable market remains

While early 2021 was more dramatic in terms of new co-packaged optics (CPO) products, the past year proved to be the period in which CPO took its first baby steps towards the data communications mainstream.  Two important practical developments occurred. One, which we discuss in this article, is the OIF Co-Packaged Optics Framework.  The other

Evolution of CPO in 2021 and Early 2022 Co-packaged optics (CPO) has emerged as technology of considerable interest as a platform for deploying optics in large data centers. A considerable segment of data communications sees CPO as a practical way forward to deploy 800G and above interfaces.  It is recognized by just about everybody in

The demand for co-packaged optics (CPO) will be driven by many factors.  Today, latency-sensitive traffic such as AI and ML is getting a lot of attention.  However, this is mostly because AI and ML is new and exciting, while video is old hat.  Nonetheless, CIR believes that the video revolution is far from over and

Co-packaged Optics standards activity have moved CPO from the realm of discussion closer to real-world adoption: (1) COBO has established a CPO working group. (2) CPO specifications have materialized in the form of the CPO Collaboration Joint Development Forum’s CPO Module product requirements document (PRD). And (3) there is an implementation agreement (IA) from the

The purpose of this article is to identify the several kinds of edge routers that are now appearing on the market. Edge-specific routers must be able to handle the functionalities described below with ease.  Edge routers can serve in a number of different functions and be of a number of different types. Edge routers are located

Excerpted from CIR’s upcoming report on Edge Computing Processors. Although edge computing has seen a lot of developments in recent years, it is not a new concept. “Content delivery networks” or “content distribution networks” (CDNs) have been around a long time. CDNs work in the same way as edge computing—a geographically distributed network of proxy

One of main predictions of CIR’s 2020 report on co-packaged optics (CPO) is that next-generation switching chips is just the beginning for CPO.  We took the position that CPO is essentially a new way to opto-electronic integration and that novel switching technology is just a place to start. With $15 million in recent funding, POET

The edge computing software segment is expected to be one of the most rapidly growing and diverse segments within the entire edge computing market and it includes platform, AI and analytics, as well as supporting segments such as DCIM and edge OS. The platform, AI and analytics segments are three of the largest within the

In the past few months two important announcements have been made showing different ways forward for the Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) business.  One of these announcements came from a duo of Cisco and Inphi. It shows perhaps a certain amount of caution about CPO.  For various reasons, Broadcom is a tad more optimistic.  However, announcements from

Participants in the edge computing market include tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Dell EMC, Cisco, HPE and Intel. However, we are also witnessing newer players coming into the market with innovative edge-focused offerings, that are attracting capital from both independent venture capital firms and the venture arms of the biggest players. CIR believes

In much the way that the past decade in datacom was defined by video applications, the next decade will be defined by smart systems – self-driving cars, Internet-of-Things (IoT) and AI (very smart systems).  At the infrastructure level, what CIR thinks this will mean is that the priority will be low latency; the video revolution

Edge computing routers are an integral part of the edge computing infrastructure but have received less attention from major supplier who remain largely focused on traditional routers.  In many current implementations of edge computing, fairly standard routers are being use but we expect that this will change. Traditional and core routers are not intended to

Edge computing (EC) embodies an old and simple idea – siphon of traffic with special characteristics from the main network to a local network.  The primary network now has more capacity for general traffic while the local network can be designed specifically for the needs of local users.  The newer concepts of edge computing are

Co-packaged optics (CPO) is flavor of the month right now; the question is, what kind of CPO?   There will surely be different form factors for data centers and telecommunications, and interconnects, sensors, and supercomputing. But there will also be different form factors proposed for CPO for within the data center. Based on recent presentations by

The Co-Packaging Framework IA (Implementers Agreement) effort just announced by the OIF is a strong endorsement for co-packaging; a technology platform whose star is in the ascendant. Co-packaging was – as recently as two years ago — considered a futuristic platform, but much attention has been brought to it as the hyperscale data center managers

Co-packaged optics is the ultimate direction for the long-touted “optical integration” meme. In theory, co-packaged optics wraps up active optics and active electronics wrapped to avoid the thermal/power inefficiencies inherent in conventional approaches to high-speed optoelectronics. A few years back when CIR investigated which technology platforms would take data centers into the 400/800G era, we

In 2020 as the first widescale deployments of 400G are taking place in data centers, the industry is already thinking of 800G networking and beyond. Three technologies are being proposed to support 800G interfaces. One of these is a pluggable option, much like 400G transceivers and the transceivers that preceded 400G.  The other two are

This year was supposed to be the big one for 400G.  Switches based on12.8T ASICs with a capacity of 32 x 400G ports were released in 2019, potentially enabling significant deployments of 400G in the data center in 2020.  Service providers have been experimenting with 200G, 400G and 600G modules for about seven years, but

The origins of most recent technological innovation in networking can be traced back to the growing need for bandwidth and this in turn to the demand for streamed video, multiple IP devices in homes, etc. Starting almost a decade ago, MSOs began to consider Converged Cable Access Platforms (CCAP) as a way to replace edge

Optical fiber in cellular infrastructure was first deployed in the 80s — much the same time that fiber was also creeping into wireline networks for the first time. Then as now, the primary driver for fiber deployment was bandwidth demand, which will soon take a great leap forward as 5G cellular replaces the 4G generations

At last year’s ECOC trade show and conference, much of talk at the conference sessions was about the replacement of 100G by 200/400G transceivers.  However, when one talked to end-users walking the show floor, a different story emerged heard.  Most data center managers whose job it typically is to oversee the smooth functioning of medium-sized

Lawrence Gasman is the founder of CIR and has been tracking commercial opportunities in networking and AI for many years.   Gasman’s consulting work has included both major multinationals and high-tech start-ups as clients and he has also carried out due diligence work for investment banks, venture capitalists and leading management consulting firms. He is also the author of

5G Fronthaul Network Suppliers Showcasing Products at OFC, Market Forecasts Published by CIR The fronthaul portion of 5G infrastructure carries data from the baseband units to remote radio head. According to CIR’s report Optical Networking Opportunities in the 5G Infrastructure Market 2019-2028, the 5G fronthaul will result in new revenues for both cable and equipment

CIR has just issued a new report on the global 5G network infrastructure market.  This blog discusses a few points from the study. As with the previous generations of mobile technology, 5G mobile will take a great leap forward in terms of the services it can support.  In the case of 5G, the claim is

The CIR team has recently returned from the OFC trade show where much fuss was made about the opportunities for fiber optics in the 5G infrastructure and C-RAN. CIR has also just published a report on “C-RAN Deployment: Market Opportunity Analysis – 2018 and Beyond,” in which we also extol the revenue potential of the

Lawrence Gasman’s presentation at OFC 2018 on 400 Gbps MSAs is available for download Click here: 400 Gbps MSAs in 2023  

The fastest growing market for active optical cable (AOCs) in Asia is in rapidly developing countries such as Thailand and Vietnam where large data centers are being deployed for the first time. However, China stands out as not only being the largest market for AOCs in Asia, but also because it is becoming a manufacturing

In April 2017, D-Wave closed its first $30 million investment in convertible notes and then received a conditional commitment from Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments) for an additional $20 million. The conditions for this second $20 million have now been met and this new money will now flow to D-Wave Systems.  In addition,

Research for CIR’s latest report on quantum technology, “Quantum Computing:  Applications, Software and End-User Markets,” has given us important insights into which industry sectors will be the first commercial adopters of quantum computing and why. By “commercial” we simply refer here to quantum computers deployed outside of the research and defense communities.  These two communities

CIR’s latest forecasts of the quantum repeater market are shown in the Exhibit below.  The numbers come from “Quantum Networking Deployments, Components and Opportunities – 2017-2026,” a report that CIR published in October.  Based on these forecasts, CIR has concluded that in about five years, revenues generated from quantum repeaters will represent a significant and

CIR's recently issued report looks at the market potential for network transmission opportunities from the advent of the quantum internet

New CIR report examines how the various appraches to PONs will happen in China

5G is being viewed as a technology that one day may possibly be to fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) what mobile phones were to wireline telephony. In this futuristic vision, broadband access would become all 5G wireless, with PONs relegated to the 5G infrastructure, albeit with an expanded role in backhaul.  But 5G wireless won’t be fully birthed

New CIR report discusses which markets will dominate PONs demand

This article sets forth five areas where we see five opportunities emerging from the emergence of quantum networking. Since the 1960s the digitalization of traffic on networks has transformed networking. Digital networking is characterized by information defined as bits (1s and 0s), rather than the waveforms associated with older analog networks. The rise of quantum

The demand for cost-effective high-performance cryptography solutions for data-centers continues to grow under the weight of almost constant threats of hacking, both strategic and malicious.  At the present time, asymmetric cryptographic solutions and bare fiber links form two of the most critical weak points for data-center security.  Both of these security incursions could be defended

400 GigE is the first Ethernet standard not to incorporate copper cable.  There is some talk about implementing 400 GigE for ultra-short reach links on a board or even board-to-board.  But for the typical data center applications – rack-to-rack and beyond – it’s fiber all the way.  An open question is how will the fiber

While polymer-based data communications has found viable niches in home networking and in the automotive industry, there has been no success in bring polymers in the data center.  Polymer datacom start ups have risen and fallen.  One recalls, especially, Telephotonics, which had very ambitious plans to create a full range of polymer-based optical components for

For now 400 GigE is barely in its deployment phase, and its use will be confined to hyperscale data centers at first.  But we have all seen how the fastest data rates make their way downward.  It is not that many years since 10 Gbps was considered “bleeding edge.” Today some laptops have 40 Gbps

Since its earliest days optical networking, on the physical cabling level, has been touted as much less prone for hard tapping than copper cables. But today, this is much less the case. Once somebody put their tap on in a right place, the security of the optical networking is gone. More and more studies are

The growth of data centers is a constant theme in the trade press.  Typically, this growth is presented as an encouraging trend, creating demand for a variety of systems and components. But for data center managers hyperscale data centers are mostly cost centers; necessary evils that require cost reduction and cost analysis, and do not

After the relative failures of the Thunderbolt 1 and Thunderbolt 2 cabling systems, Thunderbolt 3 appears set for success as the “one cable to rule them all.”  Thunderbolt 3 is billed as a user-friendly cabling system, robust enough to support everything from high-definition video to high-res audio to personal storage networking.  It operates at 40

Be sure to sign up for CIR’s webinar on active optical cabling markets taking place on July 16th.  See here to register. Active optical cable (AOC) suppliers are spreading their wings into video and consumer electronics markets, but most will remain focused on the data center – especially the HPC environment – for years to

There can be little doubt that most of the strategic focus of the AOC manufacturers will continue to be on the data-center market for the next few years. Here they will find a relatively mature market and a fairly clear path for further penetration of the market. Thus we expect to see a growing range

In 1990s fantasies of the all-optical network, electronics played a minimal role. Today it seems that the higher bandwidth demands go the more high-performance silicon is actually needed. In CIR’s new report “400G, OTN AND NEXT-GENERATION TRANSPORT: A MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY FORECAST” (See: http://www.cir-inc.com/reports/400-g-otn-and-next-generation-transport-a-market-and-technology-forecast), we discuss (among other topics) how the first trials of 400G

Carriers worldwide are beginning to outgrow 100G transport networks and are taking the first tentative steps towards 400G backbones. CIR believes these ultra-fast networks will create major new revenue opportunities for optical components firms, silicon chipmakers and equipment companies alike. This new business will occur as 400G transport moves out of today’s trial phase and

This research note is based on CIR’s new report, “Revenue Opportunities for Optical Interconnects: Market and Technology Forecast – 2013 to 2020 Vol II: On-Chip and Chip-to-Chip” Over the next five years chip companies will experience an “interconnect bottleneck” that will cause them to create alternatives to current metal/electrical interconnects. The most likely technology direction

When CIR published a report on the optical interconnect market in 2010, the goal of the report at the time was to provide a full analysis of the entire optical interconnect business. In this year’s CIR analysis we are covering the market in two reports, focusing primarily on interconnects in the chip-to-chip and on-chip sector

This research note is based on CIR’s new report, “Revenue Opportunities for Optical Interconnects: Market and Technology Forecast – 2013-2020. Vol. I Board-to-Board and Rack-Based” CIR’s latest forecast for sales of optical interconnection devices used at the rack level and for board-to-board interconnection remains bullish. We are anticipating revenues doubling from $1.1 million to $2.2

CIR last published a report on the optical interconnect market in 2010. The goal of the report at the time was to provide a full analysis of the optical interconnect business, which was taken to include: • Optical cable assemblies inside equipment as well as between equipment, or defined as board-to-board and rack-to-rack, respectively; •

Active optical cabling (AOC) is a black-box solution to creating a fiber-optic connection and consists of a complete fiber-optic data link (transceivers plus cable) that can be plugged into existing ports, enabling a very rapid introduction of optical connections. AOCs provide customers with access to all the undisputed advantages of fiber (high bandwidth, relatively thin,